The Infrastructure Thesis

  Technology demand rarely grows in smooth, predictable lines. It usually grows in steps. The same pattern is emerging in the AI industry. At first glance, AI demand appears explosive and continuous. Every year brings larger models, faster chips, and more companies investing in artificial intelligence. But if we look closer, the underlying infrastructure demand follows a different rhythm. AI infrastructure tends to expand in waves. A technological breakthrough often triggers the first surge. For example, a new GPU generation, a major model architecture improvement, or a sudden jump in AI adoption across industries. When that happens, companies rush to build. Cloud providers order thousands of GPUs. Data center operators accelerate construction. Power infrastructure upgrades begin. Capital spending across the entire supply chain jumps at once. Demand spikes quickly. But after this surge, the system pauses. Supply chains need time to respond. Factories ramp p...